TL;DR
Get hardware and tech essentials delivered free with Prime
- Fast, free delivery on millions of items
- Prime Video, Amazon Music and more included
- Member-only deals all year
Bitcoin traded near $80,400 on Oct. 26 after dipping to about $79,300 during the Asian morning, with its price little changed since midnight UTC. Oil prices fell and U.S. stock futures rose, while traders awaited Wednesday’s Fed decision; rate expectations and recent spot bitcoin ETF outflows remain in focus.
Bitcoin was near $80,400 on Oct. 26 after briefly falling to about $79,300 during the Asian morning, leaving the cryptocurrency little changed since midnight UTC, according to CoinDesk’s market report. The trading came as oil prices retreated and investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s Wednesday interest-rate decision, a closely watched event for risk assets.
Market conditions were mixed rather than uniformly positive. Ether was down 0.2%, while the DeFi index was the only CoinDesk index reported to gain. Uniswap rose 1.9% and Ethena gained about 1%, even after Arthur Hayes’ Maelstrom fund sold cryptocurrency holdings over the weekend. Hayes said the fund had sold its entire directional book, citing macroeconomic and geopolitical risk; the report also noted sales of 323,000 UNI and 14 million ENA.
U.S. crude fell about 2% to near $101 a barrel, while Brent declined to around $110. S&P 500 futures rose roughly 0.3% after U.S. stocks sold off on Friday. CoinDesk linked the oil pullback to diplomatic developments, including Qatari mediators arriving in Tehran on Sunday, and to President Donald Trump saying there would be no strike that day while leaving the option open. These events provide market context, but the report does not establish that any single development caused bitcoin’s price movement.
Rate expectations and fund flows were also in focus. The Fed raised rates in September and is due to announce its next decision Wednesday. The CME FedWatch tool showed a 90% chance of no change at this meeting and about an 80% chance of another increase in December. Separately, spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $138 million in outflows on Friday, bringing their reported two-day total to $772 million, according to Farside Investors data cited by CoinDesk.
Why the Fed Decision Matters for Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s narrow trading range puts attention on whether upcoming economic news changes expectations for interest rates and investor appetite for risk. A Fed decision to hold rates would match the outcome that the CME FedWatch tool showed as most likely at the time of the report, but markets may still react to the central bank’s accompanying guidance. The figures are market-implied probabilities, not a commitment by the Fed.
The oil decline and modest rise in U.S. stock futures offered a different backdrop from Friday’s equity selloff, while the ETF outflows pointed to recent withdrawals from spot bitcoin funds. Taken together, those indicators do not establish a single direction for bitcoin. They show why traders were weighing monetary policy, geopolitical developments and fund flows at once. Crypto prices can move sharply, and investors can lose some or all of their capital.
Products Worth Considering
Ledger Flex + Folio Crypto Hardware Wallet
Trezor Safe 7 Crypto Hardware Wallet
Ledger Nano X Bluetooth Crypto Wallet
As an affiliate, we earn on qualifying purchases.
Recent Trading and Market Positioning
The report described bitcoin as little changed since midnight UTC, despite its move from around $79,300 to near $80,400. Derivatives data also suggested limited broad repositioning over the 24-hour period: crypto futures open interest rose 0.85% to $139.9 billion, while trading volume fell 1.78% and liquidations dropped 71% to $153 million. The long-versus-short taker volume ratio was close to even, at 50.34% to 49.66%.
Options markets still showed greater demand for downside protection than upside exposure, although the gap narrowed. The busiest bitcoin contract was the Oct. 28 $77,000 put, ahead of the Oct. 28 $84,000 call. One-month bitcoin put skew eased to about 12.5% from 14.5%, according to the report. For ether, puts accounted for four of the six most active contracts, led by the Oct. 29 $2,000 strike; its one-week skew fell to about 8.7% from 13.3%. These measures describe derivatives pricing and positioning, not a forecast of where prices will go.
“Hayes said Maelstrom had sold its entire directional book, citing macroeconomic and geopolitical risk.”
— Arthur Hayes, as quoted in the CoinDesk report
What Could Still Shift Markets
The Fed’s Wednesday decision had not yet been announced when the market update was published. The report gave probabilities for the coming decision and December but did not identify the policy outcome as certain. It also did not provide a direct explanation for bitcoin’s intraday move, so the relative effects of oil prices, rate expectations, geopolitical news and fund flows remain unclear.
The ETF figures cover the outflows reported for Friday and the preceding two-day period; they do not show whether withdrawals continued afterward. Nor does the report establish whether the diplomatic developments would lead to a lasting change in oil supply expectations. Bitcoin and other crypto assets remain volatile, and derivatives indicators and market probabilities can change quickly.
Wednesday’s Fed Decision Is Next
The next major scheduled event in the report is the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday. Traders will also be watching any accompanying policy guidance, further movement in oil prices and updates to spot bitcoin ETF flows. The report did not provide a specific subsequent price target or say how bitcoin would respond to any particular Fed outcome.
Until those developments arrive, the available snapshot is one of bitcoin holding near $80,000 after an early-session dip, with futures positioning broadly subdued and market attention split between monetary policy and geopolitical news.
Key Questions
Where was bitcoin trading in the Oct. 26 report?
CoinDesk reported bitcoin near $80,400 after a dip to around $79,300 during the Asian morning. It was little changed from midnight UTC.
When was the Federal Reserve due to announce its decision?
The Fed’s next rate decision was scheduled for Wednesday. The report, published Oct. 26, said the CME FedWatch tool showed a 90% chance of no change at that meeting.
What happened to oil prices?
U.S. crude fell about 2% to near $101 a barrel, and Brent slipped to around $110, according to the report. It also described diplomatic activity and a statement by President Trump as part of the market backdrop.
Were investors withdrawing money from spot bitcoin ETFs?
Farside Investors data cited by CoinDesk showed $138 million in outflows on Friday, bringing the two-day total to $772 million. The report did not say whether that trend continued after Friday.
Does the report say bitcoin will rise or fall next?
No. It reports the price, market indicators and rate expectations but does not establish a direction for future prices. Crypto assets are volatile and can result in substantial losses.
Source: coindesk.com
