TL;DR
Bettors are increasingly fading Scottie Scheffler at the 2026 U.S. Open, with odds lengthening from +445 to as high as +700 across sportsbooks. This shift reflects changing betting patterns and course conditions, impacting the tournament’s betting landscape.
Betting markets for the 2026 U.S. Open show Scottie Scheffler’s odds lengthening significantly, with sportsbooks reporting reduced betting interest compared to previous majors, indicating a shift in bettor confidence ahead of the tournament at Shinnecock Hills.
Scottie Scheffler remains the pre-tournament favorite at many sportsbooks, but his odds have increased from +445 at DraftKings to as high as +700 across the market, reflecting a decline in betting action. Last year, Scheffler entered the U.S. Open at a much shorter +275, following a PGA Championship win.
Bookmakers attribute the longer odds partly to less betting volume on Scheffler, with some noting that the public appears more cautious, especially given recent surprises in major tournaments. Caesars Sportsbook’s Anthony Salleroli indicated that if betting patterns continue, Scheffler’s odds could reach +700, though he expects them to stay somewhat shorter.
Despite the reduced betting on Scheffler, he remains a popular choice among bettors, though not to the same extent as in previous majors. Meanwhile, other players like Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick, Si Woo Kim, and Sam Burns are attracting early betting interest, with some large wagers placed on Tyrrell Hatton.
Weather conditions, particularly forecasted winds exceeding 20 mph, are expected to influence the tournament, potentially favoring experienced players like Brooks Koepka, who won at Shinnecock in 2018. Koepka’s status is uncertain after withdrawing from the RBC Canadian Open due to a hand injury, but he remains a notable contender at 36-1 odds.
Impact of Fading Scheffler on U.S. Open Betting Dynamics
The increasing odds for Scheffler suggest a shift in betting confidence, which could influence tournament betting strategies and perceptions of player form. Reduced betting on the favorite may also open opportunities for long-shot wagers, affecting how sportsbooks manage liability and market movement. For fans and bettors, this signals a more unpredictable tournament with potential surprises, especially if weather conditions challenge the field.
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Recent Major Surprises and Betting Trends at Shinnecock
In recent U.S. Opens, long-shot winners have been more common, with Wyndham Clark in 2023 and J.J. Spaun in 2025 both coming in at 100-1 or longer. The 2026 PGA Championship saw Aaron Rai win at odds of 290-1, highlighting the unpredictability of major tournaments. Historically, Shinnecock Hills has been a challenging course, with winning scores often close to even par, and weather conditions frequently playing a decisive role.
Betting patterns have reflected this unpredictability, with early interest in players like Fleetwood, Fitzpatrick, and Kim. The betting market’s focus on long shots and the fading of Scheffler’s odds underscore a broader trend of increased variability in major golf betting.
“We’re seeing a lot less action on Scheffler compared to previous majors. His odds are lengthening because bettors are cautious, especially with weather conditions expected to be tough.”
— an anonymous bookmaker representative
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Unclear Factors Influencing Betting and Player Performance
It remains uncertain whether Scheffler’s odds will continue to lengthen as the tournament approaches or if betting activity will rebound. Additionally, the impact of weather conditions on player performance and betting patterns is still developing, and Koepka’s injury status could influence his chances and betting interest.
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Upcoming Betting Trends and Player Updates Before the U.S. Open
Betting markets are expected to fluctuate further as more bets come in, especially on long shots. Player conditions, weather forecasts, and any late withdrawals or injuries will influence odds. Bettors and sportsbooks will closely monitor these factors until the tournament begins on Thursday.
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Key Questions
Why are Scheffler’s odds lengthening at the U.S. Open?
Bookmakers report reduced betting volume on Scheffler, possibly due to increased caution among bettors and the challenging weather forecast, leading to longer odds.
Could Scheffler still win despite the longer odds?
Yes, longer odds do not eliminate his chances, but they reflect a decrease in betting confidence and possibly increased uncertainty about his performance.
How might weather impact the tournament outcome?
Forecasted high winds could make the course more difficult, potentially favoring experienced players and increasing the chances of surprises or long-shot winners.
Is Brooks Koepka a serious contender despite his injury?
Koepka remains a notable contender at 36-1 odds, but his injury status and recent withdrawal from the Canadian Open add uncertainty to his chances.
What does this betting trend mean for fans watching the tournament?
The fading of Scheffler and interest in long shots suggest a more unpredictable competition, which could lead to unexpected results and heightened excitement.
Source: ESPN
